Trevor Brown
CNHI News Service
EDMOND —
Republicans and Democrats will be closely watching Tuesday’s runoff elections as the two parties prepare to position themselves for the Nov. 2 general election.
After failing to name winners during last month’s primary contests, Republicans will make their choice Tuesday for who will represent the party in the 2nd and 5th District U.S. House of Representatives races and the state insurance commissioner race. Republicans and Democrats will also name their nominees in a total of seven state legislative contests.
Contrasts seen in Congressional runoffs
In the Republican 5th Congressional District runoff, James Lankford and Kevin Calvey are competing with the intention to succeed U.S. Rep. Mary Fallin, who is vacating her seat to run for governor. The winner between Lankford and Calvey will face Democrat Billy Coyle and independents Clark Duffe and Dave White on Nov. 2.
Although it is an open seat with no incumbent running, University of Oklahoma political science professor Keith Gaddie said the odds favor either Lankford or Calvey winning in November because the district trends fairly strongly toward the GOP. Republicans have controlled the 5th District seat since 1977 with former Reps. Ernest Istook and Mickey Edwards serving a combined 30 years before Fallin took office in 2007.
“It would take an exceptional effort for the Democrats to win there,” Gaddie said. “I would say (Democrats) have about a one in four chance of winning (the district).”
Kris Masterman, Oklahoma Democratic Party manager of operations, however, said the open seat presents a rare opportunity for Democrats to increase their congressional foothold in the state. He said the presence of the two independents could steal votes away from the Republican nominee as well as forcing the eventual GOP candidate to pivot more to the right on many issues.
“We are confident with having them run far to the right, which doesn’t appeal to the moderate Oklahoman voter,” he said. “Billy Coyle is extremely moderate, and he can pull in the Democratic base and pull in more moderates than the Republicans.”
Meanwhile, the winner between Daniel Edmonds and Charles Thompson in the Republican 2nd Congressional District runoff is expected to face a tougher path to winning on Nov. 2 than their 5th District Republican counterparts, Gaddie said.
The winner of the Edmonds-Thompson race will face incumbent Democrat Dan Boren, of Muskogee, in the traditionally Democratic-leaning southeastern portion of the state. Only three Republicans have been elected to the 2nd District since statehood. And with the exception of now-Sen. Tom Coburn, who represented the district form 1995 to 2001, no Republican has won the seat since the 1920s.
“We’ll be looking for Dan Boren to wrap it up again,” Masterman said. “Regardless of who comes out in the runoff between Edmonds or Thompson, it doesn’t really matter. That is a race to see who will get beat.”
Republican 2nd District Chairwoman Jo Rainbolt also acknowledged the difficulties of a member of her party winning the congressional seat in November. However, she said either Edmonds or Thompson could make it a competitive race.
“Even though it is a mostly regularly Democratic area, they are still considered conservative Democrats,” Rainbolt said. “I think Boren’s voting record will work against him.”
Low turnout expected
With low voter turnout expected for Tuesday’s primarily runoff races, a small margin could decide the candidates who will move on to the November general election.
Gaddie said without a headline race, such as a governor’s contest, many typical voters will stay home. He said in an average runoff election the turnout falls by about a third from the previous primary.
“It will be the second election in a month so there is the concern of voter fatigue,” he said. “Interest levels will fall off if you don’t have a major statewide race, and there is not a lot of incentive to come out other than some of the lower resolution races.”
In the 2nd District, Rainbolt added she foresees many of the runoff voters to be mainly members of the Republican base who tend to be active in state politics.
“I do expect the die-hards will be out there,” she said. “And I hope some of the others who don’t pay as much attention will get concerned about our country and come out to vote.”
Since the 2nd District features a relatively small number of registered Republicans, Gaddie said turnout in that part of the state likely will be less than the more closely watched Republican runoff in the 5th District. With the most voters in the state coming out in the 5th District race, Gaddie said voters there will hold a large sway in the only statewide race of the Republican insurance commissioner runoff between John Doak and John P. Crawford.
“The state insurance race will be about Oklahoma County (and the rest of the 5th District),” Gaddie said.
