The Edmond Sun

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November 22, 2011

Retail foundation predicts 2.8 percent rise in holiday sales

Mark Schlachtenhaufen The Edmond Sun

EDMOND — A 2.8 percent increase in holiday sales in November and December is expected, according to the National Retail Federation 2011 holiday season forecast.

On the heels of a holiday season that outperformed most analysts’ expectations, holiday retail sales for 2011 are expected to increase 2.8 percent to $465.6 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. The organization defines “holiday sales” as those occurring in November and December.

While that growth is far lower than the 5.2 percent increase retailers experienced last year, it is slightly higher than the 10-year average holiday sales increase of 2.6 percent.

Several economic indicators paint a solid picture for the holiday season, including 14 consecutive months of retail sales growth and a substantial reduction in household debt. Continued consumer uncertainty over the stock market, higher gas and food prices, fiscal policy and sputtering job growth will affect spending this holiday season.

Trends include more consumers drawn by pre-Black Friday sales shopping early (51 percent compared to 48.9 percent in 2010), slightly smaller holiday shopping budgets per shopper, an increase in discretionary gift shopping (home furnishings, leisure items, electronics, jewelry, etc.) and a reliance on debit cards (44 percent), according to the National Retail Federation’s 2011 holiday consumer survey.

Oklahoma retailers should top the national forecast, said Matt Robison, vice president for government affairs with The State Chamber of Oklahoma. Robison cited numbers such as October collections being 7.4 percent higher than in October of last year, showing steady improvement in the state’s economy. During the past 12 months collections are up almost 9 percent from the previous 12 months, according to the state treasurer’s office.

Earlier this month, State Treasurer Ken Miller, of Edmond, said the latest Business Conditions Index for Oklahoma continues to reflect a positive outlook for the state’s economy. The index for October shows anticipated growth for the next three to six months.

National Retail Federation President and CEO Matthew Shay said the retail industry is in a better position this year to handle consumer uncertainty than it was in 2008 and 2009.



CYBER SALES

Pam Goodfellow, consumer insights director, BIGresearch, said given shoppers’ hunger for value and good deals, Black Friday and Cyber Monday will be incredibly important days for retailers this year.

Online retailers have plenty to be joyous about this holiday season as new research shows companies are adjusting their holiday plans based on expected growth and strong demand from holiday shoppers.

According to Shop.org’s eHoliday survey conducted by BIGresearch, nearly seven in 10 (68 percent) retailers say they expect their company’s online sales to grow at least 15 percent or more compared to last holiday season, up from the 63.8 percent who had those expectations last year.

The survey is supported by new data from the National Retail Federation, which found the average shopper plans to do about 36.0 percent of their holiday shopping online, up from 32.7 percent last year.



marks@edmondsun.com | 341-2121, ext. 108

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