EDMOND —
You can learn a lot about life and the world by watching old movies and reading classic works of literature. Great lines can sum up thoughts and emotions in a few words.
In the 1942 classic WWII film “Casablanca,” Claude Rains as Captain Renault uttered the immortal words, “I’m shocked, shocked to find gambling going on in this establishment!” That was shortly before the croupier approaches him, hands him a wad of bills, and says, “Your winnings sir.” It’s a funny moment that makes me laugh every time.
If you listen carefully to the dialogue in that movie you start to get a feeling that they were not only talking about the world at war back then, but also about the world in chaos today.
I get the same reaction every time I hear someone in the world of Wall Street expressing shock and dismay about new revelations of someone gaming the system. Who would have thought that gambling, speculation and manipulation would be going on in the financial markets? Be still my heart.
When Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and French President Francois Hollande (both extreme socialists) were elected to office, it reminded me of the character Rick Blaine’s final words, “Louie, I think this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship.”
After only a few months, regarding the relationship between these two world leaders, we know that the electorate now understands that more of the same does not result in a different outcome. Therefore, in Europe unemployment continues to rise, housing deteriorates and hope declines.
People can grasp Rick’s confusion when asked why he came to Casablanca as he responded “My health, I came to Casablanca for the waters.”
Renault replied, “The waters? What waters? We’re in the desert.”
Rick answered, “I was misinformed.”
So too is the world misinformed, as the same failed policies of the past are repeated again and again and again.
Most people have absolutely no clue about high-frequency trading, mark-to-model or a dozen other tactics and techniques that create fraudulent and manipulated financial markets. However, if people were informed they would probably respond in the following manner. Signor Ugarte: “You despise me, don’t you?” Rick: “If I gave you any thought I probably would.”
Every day as the world crumbles, the same corrupted names come to the top of the list. Again and again, the fines are levied, the wrists are slapped and business continues as usual. From Goldman Sachs to Morgan Stanley and from J.P. Morgan to Bank of America, it’s always the same.
Captain Renault: “Major Strasser has been shot. Round up the usual suspects.”
I could talk about “all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world,” or even the phrase from Casablanca, “play it again, Sam.” Yet, as the optimists hope for something that really “doesn’t amount to a hill of beans in this crazy world,” perhaps the most appropriate ending is “here’s looking at you, kid.”
As so now we arrive in September. After an August that may go down in history as one of near terminal boredom, the fireworks are about to go off again. Governments and central banks have pushed many decisions off to this month with hints and promises through the summer of being ready to come to the rescue if needed.
Fed Chairman Bernanke did so again recently, but increased the level of assurances enough so expectations are high for action from its Federal Open Market Committee meeting this month. Economic reports in the Eurozone continue to weaken, putting still more pressure on officials to act. Moody’s has put the European Union’s triple-A credit rating on a negative outlook. The number of unemployed workers has surged to a record 18 million, or 11.3 percent, and both consumer and business confidence is at a three-year low.
Officials are back from their vacations and this is the month of various meetings in Europe that also are supposed to finally come up with meaningful solutions. First in line is the European Central Bank’s meeting, which is expected to decide to what degree the ECB will back its President Draghi’s promise a month ago that the ECB “will do whatever it takes to save the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.”
But European stock markets are uncertain and still waiting. Unknown is what type of fiscal agreements Spain and others will have to agree to in order to have access to the program. Spain has said it will not take the required next step of requesting a bailout until it knows the details of what will be involved. Here’s a note to officials on the relationship between the rescuer and the one being rescued — you don’t get to gripe about not getting a window seat on the life boat. Just a thought.
Will central banks end the summer’s uncertainties with positive actions that will disrupt the history of September being rough on investors? We’ll soon know. The big day to watch is Sept. 12, when a number of critical decision may be announced and no one is really sure which way it will go. Buckle up for a wild ride.
Of course, some people are just worn out and may want to borrow another great movie line. “Frankly my dear, I don’t give a damn.” Thanks for reading.
NICK MASSEY is a financial adviser and president of Householder Group Financial Advisors in Edmond. Massey can be reached at www.nickmassey.com. Securities offered through Securities Service Network Inc., member FINRA/SIPC.
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