The Edmond Sun

Opinion

August 28, 2012

What Republicans know: It's the economy, stupid

Fredericksburg, Va. — Since the announcement of Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney’s running mate, much ink has been spilled over the new vice presidential candidate. But perhaps the most significant aspect of the Ryan pick is what it means for the future of the Republican Party. After all, even if the Romney-Ryan ticket loses in November, Ryan will become the heir apparent to Romney and the de facto leader of the GOP in the years to come.  

For the Republican Party, the Ryan selection means fiscal conservatism will be the core philosophy and the unifying element in a time when intraparty fissures are becoming evident.  

Ronald Reagan’s “three-legged stool” of conservatism — fiscal austerity, traditional social values, and a strong national defense — has been a cornerstone of the GOP since his presidency. The stool still exists, but the fiscal leg has gotten longer recently. A Romney-Ryan ticket emphasizes this evolution.

After spending eight years out of power in the 1990s, Republicans returned to the White House in 2000 (albeit by the skin of their teeth) via George W. Bush. During the campaign, Bush aligned himself with “compassionate conservatism,” which stressed greater attention to mitigating social problems and addressing social welfare. This softer version of conservatism became somewhat lost in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, which brought defense and national security issues to the forefront of political discussion. Defense spending rose accordingly.

But Bush’s Keynesianism — increasing spending in the midst of a deficit — caused some hard-core conservatives to turn on him. Additionally, ongoing American involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan created war fatigue and contributed to growing isolationist sentiment. By the time of Ron Paul’s presidential run in 2008, there was a strong and vocal libertarian faction in the Republican Party.

At the same time, even though most mainstream Republicans continue to support traditional social values, discussion of social issues increasingly takes a back seat to talk of the economy. A big reason for this is that American opinion on certain social issues is undergoing a shift. In May 2011, Gallup found that for the first time ever, a majority of Americans supported same-sex marriage. (Nearly three in 10 Republicans supported it, as did three in 10 self-identified conservatives.) Seven in 10 Americans between the ages of 18 and 34 say that same-sex marriage should be legal — a much higher percentage than reported by their elders.   

Even though the overwhelming success of “Chick–fil–A Appreciation Day” can be attributed partly to a conservative pushback on social values, other conservatives supported Chick–fil–A on the grounds of free speech. For his own part, Mitt Romney has avoided discussion of the controversy, asserting that it is “not part of my campaign.” It seems that GOP politicians are arriving at the belief that fighting a culture war is no way to win a national election these days.  

Whereas intraparty differences on national security and social issues have divided the Republican Party of late, fiscal conservatism is the glue holding together tea party-ers, libertarians and defense hawks. The mantra of cutting taxes and spending is consistent across all conservative factions, and given the country’s continuing economic struggles, it is destined to be so for some time to come.

What does all this mean for the upcoming GOP convention in Tampa, Fla.? A quick overview of the list of speakers indicates that the disparate elements of the Republican Party will be represented, from social conservatives (Mike Huckabee) to economic experts (Rob Portman) to even former Democrats (Artur Davis). But it’s clear that those who are getting the prime speaking spots look to the party’s future rather than its past. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will give the opening keynote address, and his actions as governor surely place him squarely among the most fiscally conservative governors in the nation. In 2011, Christie was responsible for cutting $1 billion from the state budget via line-item veto.

Introducing Mitt Romney will be first-term Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who, like Christie, was among the top names mentioned as a potential running mate for Romney. Even before his election to the Senate, Rubio was a tea party favorite, known for his support for fiscal discipline. While in the Florida House of Representatives, Rubio championed the elimination of the state’s homestead tax, to be replaced with a higher sales tax. He became a favorite of anti-tax groups as a result. Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, even called Rubio “the most pro-taxpayer legislative leader in the country.”

It is not that Romney, Ryan and the major speakers at the Republican National Convention do not possess strongly conservative social and foreign policy positions. All of them, for example, would consider themselves pro-life, pro-gun and pro-Israel. But their main policy focus is the economy — cutting taxes, reducing spending and the size of government, and reforming costly government programs. Fiscal austerity is the essence of their conservatism — and it likely will define the party for several elections to come.

And it should. When it comes to dealing with a range of economic issues, Americans tend to believe that Republicans would do a better job than Democrats. A June NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that Americans trust Republicans to control government spending more than Democrats by a 40 percent to 23 percent margin. Thirty-seven percent trust Republicans to do a better job on reducing the deficit, compared to 25 percent for Democrats. Clearly, Republicans have a decisive trust advantage over Democrats on spending matters. So it’s only natural — and smart — for the party to emphasize its policy strengths.  

In the wake of Ryan’s selection as the vice presidential candidate, there is one area in which Republicans need to exercise some care: They must be careful not to focus too much of their discussion on entitlement programs. Whereas Republicans have the advantage when it comes to talking about spending, Democrats have the edge on these programs. On dealing with Medicare, Americans trust Democrats over Republicans by a 40 percent to 24 percent margin. Same goes for Social Security: Democrats have a 36 percent to 24 percent edge on that issue. Democrats have wisely turned the conversation toward these programs since Ryan was added to the Republican ticket, but the GOP must make the economy the main focus again if it hopes to win this fall.

With their convention officially kicking off the home stretch of the presidential election campaign this week, Republicans need to remember a lesson from Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 campaign: It’s the economy, stupid. Now that Romney has selected Ryan, the two Republicans need to stress that their understanding of fiscal and budget issues will mean a quicker economic recovery for America. If they can convince voters of this, they stand a good chance of taking back the White House.

JENNIFER MARSICO is a senior research associate at the American Enterprise Institute, focusing on campaigns and elections, election reform and government continuity issues. Readers may write to her at 2000 N St. NW, Apt. 717, Washington, DC 20036; email: Jennifer.Marsico@aei.org. She wrote this for The Free Lance-Star (Fredericksburg, Va.).

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If the Republican runoff for the 5th District congressional seat were today, which candidate would you vote for?

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